October Review

1 November 2023

October Review

By Adam Novakovic
Energy Markets Consultant

As we pack away our Halloween decorations for another year, there appears to be more shocks and scares lurking in the world of energy. October was a month which saw man-made atrocities dominate the headlines, and it seems likely that global conflicts will once again be a significant catalyst in the energy markets.


Wholesale gas prices hit their highest levels since March, and the charts seem to be currently forming a pennant. In classical charting, a pennant/flag is normally a pre-cursor to another significant upward impulse. If this particular pennant plays out this way, then we can expect to see prices return to levels not seen since January.

The major news story this month has been the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Shortly after the first reports broke, we saw oil prices jump 4% and gas prices rise shortly after. While neither nation is a large producer of gas or oil (Israel does produce some LNG), a lot of the fears are related to the conflict spreading further across the region. Earlier this month we released a video identifying how developments in the Middle East could possibly lead to further rises in the prices of energy.   Ultimately, should the conflict continue, and should surrounding nations become involved, it will become likely that shipping routes in the region become less accessible.  This would be particularly negative for UK energy prices, seeing as how the UK’s main supplier of LNG is Qatar, who rely on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to export their LNG.


Another threat to the supply of gas this month came when Finland announced that there had been damage to the Baltic Interconnector pipeline. This pipeline connects Finland and Estonia, and had been transporting 30 GWh/day of gas before the disruption. It is expected that this disruption will not cause shortages in either country due to the significant reserve supplies that have been built up in the region. It has, however, been announced that it will likely take until April of next year for the pipeline to be repaired. While investigations into the cause are ongoing, it seems likely that this was caused by the anchor of a Russian-owned, Chinese cargo vessel. The incident occurred approximately one year after an attack on the Russian state-owned Nordstream pipelines.


In more positive news, strike action that had previously threatened Chevron’s Australian LNG plants have now been dismissed. The unions behind the strike action have now endorsed the new deal tabled by Chevron and it seems unlikely there will be any industrial action at these plants for the foreseeable future.




Outlook


After conflicting reports from industry experts -- with Drax stating electricity costs are likely to be reduced due to lessor BSuoS costs, and Cornwall Insights suggesting prices will rise as a result of increasing wholesale prices – there appears to be a lack of consensus about where prices will go in the medium term. One thing that is becoming apparent though, is that threats of damaged pipelines and conflict in the Middle East aren’t the only factors likely to have an impact on energy prices.


China has seen a growth in demand for LNG in 2023.  While this demand can initially be met by domestic gas production, should it continue, we may see the LNG market become more competitive. With global production expected to remain relatively flat over the next few years, any increase in demand will likely need to be met by existing sources, which could create a small-scale bidding war. If this is then coupled with difficulties in shipping LNG to some locations, it could have a very detrimental impact on regional energy prices.             


The World Bank has warned that, if the conflict in the Middle East is to spread, and the Russia/Ukraine conflict persists, we could see a dual energy shock. This would be the first of its kind in decades and would likely have a significant negative impact on energy prices globally.


In the UK, we are now getting a clearer picture of how the weather will look this winter as long-range forecasts have predicted that the impact of El Niño will likely see icy blasts and falling temperatures in December. Last winter was a mild one for most of Europe, but that now seems unlikely to be the case for the coming winter.


With the list of potential negative catalysts growing, it does seem as though now me be an opportune time to lock in some prices and guarantee peace of mind. It should be remembered however, that European gas reserve levels are near to capacity and that Norway has been increasing their gas export levels – factors which should mitigate some negative supply news. For those on flex contracts, we would look at hedging a % for the coming winter and keeping a close eye on the catalysts most likely to drive prices up. If there were to be news further impacting gas imports to Europe, we could see a large, fear-driven spike in wholesale prices, and it seems as though the potential for negative events occurring is higher than at any previous point this year.


If your business requires advice with its energy procurement, management, or planning, then don’t hesitate to contact Seemore Energy to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs. And if you would like to receive our monthly analysis directly into your inbox each month, sign up for our free reports here.

30 June 2025
June 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic The British summer is underway and it commenced with a heatwave, leading to record temperatures during the opening games of Wimbledon. However, energy prices would be largely dictated by events far away from the UK, as a need for cool heads in the Middle East was the primary driver of energy prices throughout June.
24 June 2025
The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy 2025 Electricity Discounts for Over 7,000 Businesses Thousands of UK businesses are set to benefit from a new government plan to cut energy costs, boost competitiveness, and support long-term industrial growth. As part of the newly launched Industrial Strategy, electricity bills for over 7,000 energy-intensive firms will be cut by up to 25% from 2027. What Is the UK's Modern Industrial Strategy? Unveiled on 23 June 2025, the government’s 10-year Industrial Strategy is designed to stimulate business investment, create over one million skilled jobs, and address key structural barriers that have hindered British industry — particularly high electricity prices and delays in grid connections. Central to this plan are two new policies focused on reducing energy costs for businesses: The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) An expanded British Industry Supercharger programme 
19 June 2025
How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices By Adam Novakovic Tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified in recent weeks, prompting renewed concerns across global energy markets — including in the UK. The immediate impact has seen some fear in the markets and prices have risen as a result. Any further signs of escalation that could disrupt global supply routes will likely provoke sharp spikes in wholesale energy prices. Soon after Israel launched initial attacks and Iran responded, the United States distanced itself from Israel’s aggressive military posturing, urging both sides to engage in diplomatic dialogue and to avoid an extended regional conflict. This initial reluctance to support a drawn-out confrontation has helped calm fears of a broader war, however, there have been some indications that the US position could change. If the US were to become more directly involved, then the outlook would worsen considerably. US involvement would increase the probability of ground troops being deployed in Iran, and of a prolonged war. Without prolonged hostilities, the energy market should resume its downward trajectory once immediate geopolitical risks fade. Both Iran and Israel lack the resources to sustain a protracted war without foreign support, and most analysts agree that military actions will likely remain confined to missile exchanges, drone activity, and cyber or intelligence-based sabotage, rather than a full-scale ground war.
1 June 2025
May Review By Adam Novakovic As Summer kicked into gear, we saw a small jump in the wholesale energy markets at the start of month before the prices began to stabilise.
1 May 2025
April 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic For some, April can be the cruellest of months. We saw Earthquakes cause damage in Thailand, volcanic eruptions near Iceland, and the month ended with blackouts in the Iberian peninsula. The latter highlighting the issues with switching to renewable energy sources too quickly, at the expense of energy grid stability. However, April can also be a time of great optimism as we exit the winter months and head towards the summer. The energy markets gave us plenty of reasons to be happy in the past month as wholesale gas prices fell over 20%. This drop was also seen in the gas markets for Winter’25 (a 20.42% drop) and for Summer’26 (a 14.17% drop) as prices fell, representing a good buying opportunity for those on flexible contracts.
20 April 2025
TCR Banding: A Powerful but Overlooked Way to Lower Energy Costs for UK Businesses As UK business energy prices continue to fluctuate at historically high levels, companies across the country are under increasing pressure to find reliable ways to lower energy costs. With government levies, non-commodity charges, and market instability all contributing to rising bills, businesses must now look beyond traditional energy-saving methods to manage their expenses. In previous articles we looked at how to lower kVA charges , and published a guide on how to lower business energy costs . One such method gaining attention is TCR Banding — a relatively lesser-known, yet impactful solution for reducing DUoS and TUoS charges. What Is TCR Banding? TCR Banding is part of the Targeted Charging Review (TCR) , a reform introduced by Ofgem in 2022. Its goal is to ensure a fairer, more consistent system for charging UK electricity users for their share of the grid's maintenance costs — specifically the Transmission Use of System (TUoS) and Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges. Instead of charges being based on when energy is used (which could be manipulated by large users), charges are now fixed and based on how much energy is typically consumed. This is where TCR Bands come into play. What Are TCR Bands? TCR Bands categorize electricity meters into different levels based on their voltage type and agreed kVA capacity. These bands determine the fixed DUoS and TUoS charges applied to a business's energy bill. For Low Voltage (LV) Half-Hourly Meters: Band 1: 0 – 80 kVA Band 2: 81 – 150 kVA Band 3: 151 – 231 kVA Band 4: 232 kVA and above For High Voltage (HV) Half-Hourly Meters: Band 1: 0 – 422 kVA Band 2: 423 – 1,000 kVA Band 3: 1,001 – 1,800 kVA Band 4: 1,801 kVA and above The higher your TCR band, the more you'll pay in fixed DUoS and TUoS charges — making it essential for UK businesses to ensure their banding is correctly assigned. Who Assigns Your TCR Band? Your Distribution Network Operator (DNO) is responsible for assigning your TCR Band. DNOs are regional companies that manage the physical infrastructure delivering electricity to your site. They’re also the ones compensated through DUoS and TUoS charges shown on your business energy invoice.
31 March 2025
March 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic As we exit the winter season and the weather begins to improve, the energy news has – once again -- been dominated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
4 March 2025
February Review By Adam Novakovic With consumer spending declining and OFGEM raising their price cap, you would be forgiven for seeing February as a month where negative news was at the forefront, but in the energy markets, this was not the case.
3 February 2025
January 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic This January saw the UK record it’s coldest night in 15 years, but there wasn’t much in the way of wind to accompany the cold temperatures of the month. This combination led to more energy being used than expected and lower-than-hoped renewable levels being recorded, as energy prices continued to rise against the backdrop of European gas reserve levels being depleted. January kicked off with the long-expected news that Russian gas supply would cease flowing into continental Europe. Whilst the cessation of this supply had been long planned for, many would have hoped it wouldn’t coincide with a cold snap hitting the continent. The lower-than-expected temperatures have led to energy consumption being higher than anticipated putting a further strain on reserve supplies. While the weather forecasts were making for dim reading, there was some positive news coming from across the Atlantic. Donald Trump -- uncharacteristically for a politician -- had followed through on his pre-election promises and lifted the freeze on US LNG exports. In addition to reallowing exports to be permitted, Trump has also allowed for new US LNG projects to be applied for, this boosts both short and long-term positivity surrounding the gas supply that can be received by Europe. With the cessation of the Russian gas supply occurring instantly from January 1 st , and the restarting of US exports being something that will likely take months before export capacity is fully ramped up, it could be a few months before the positive effects are truly felt. This would coincide with the end the European winter, so it may be the end of March or beginning of April until the market has a more positive response. However, this could also be when European nations look to begin restocking their reserves. For those with renewals in the coming 3 months, now may be the best time to seek prices, as the further depletion of European gas reserves is likely to have a negative impact upon prices. For those whose contract is due for renewal later in the year, it may be best to be patient and wait for the market conditions to change. If your contract is due for renewal later this year and you would like a reminder sent when the market conditions turn more favourable, simply email your contract end date to adam@seemoreenergy.co.uk and we will provide reminders ahead of the renewal, at times when the market is presenting favourable negotiation conditions. 
6 January 2025
2024 Review By Adam Novakovic In a year that began with falling energy prices, there were recurring catalysts that led to prices climbing steadily higher. Geopolitical uncertainty and the perennial threat of escalating conflicts meant fear would maintain a constant presence in the wholesale markets. We will look back at the key energy stories from 2024, and how the energy markets are likely to shape up in 2025. Quarter 1 The year began with cautious optimism as the UK’s gas reserve levels were healthy and prices for the Summer’24 season were in freefall. In February, prices pulled back to their lowest levels since 2021, and for the first time in a while, we identified that there was greater potential for upside risk than for further downward price movement: “ there now (exists) an asymmetrical element of risk should the market encounter a supply-side problem of significance. ” During February we had advised customers on flexible contracts that this was an ideal time for making purchases. March would see prices begin to ascend again as international conflict would create problems with LNG imports, and we would highlight the geopolitical risks as an area for concern moving forwards: “ fears remain and there are potential negative catalysts that could lead to prices rising further, with the main factors to watch out for being based on geopolitical unrest. “ For a business that purchases their energy in advance, this quarter was the optimal time for purchasing during 2024. In February, electricity prices for Winter’25 were down to 7.75p/Kwh, and as low as 6.05p/Kwh for Summer’25. Winter’25 ended the year with prices above 11.1p/Kwh, with Summer’25 prices exceeding 9p/Kwh. For a company that uses 500,000Kwh of electricity per month, the difference between buying at the February low point compared to today’s prices would represent a yearly saving of over £200,000.
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