2024 Review

6 January 2025

2024 Review

By Adam Novakovic

In a year that began with falling energy prices, there were recurring catalysts that led to prices climbing steadily higher. Geopolitical uncertainty and the perennial threat of escalating conflicts meant fear would maintain a constant presence in the wholesale markets. We will look back at the key energy stories from 2024, and how the energy markets are likely to shape up in 2025.


Quarter 1

The year began with cautious optimism as the UK’s gas reserve levels were healthy and prices for the Summer’24 season were in freefall. In February, prices pulled back to their lowest levels since 2021, and for the first time in a while, we identified that there was greater potential for upside risk than for further downward price movement:
 “
there now (exists) an asymmetrical element of risk should the market encounter a supply-side problem of significance.


During February we had advised customers on flexible contracts that this was an ideal time for making purchases.

March would see prices begin to ascend again as international conflict would create problems with LNG imports, and we would highlight the geopolitical risks as an area for concern moving forwards:
fears remain and there are potential negative catalysts that could lead to prices rising further, with the main factors to watch out for being based on geopolitical unrest.


For a business that purchases their energy in advance, this quarter was the optimal time for purchasing during 2024. In February, electricity prices for Winter’25 were down to 7.75p/Kwh, and as low as 6.05p/Kwh for Summer’25. Winter’25 ended the year with prices above 11.1p/Kwh, with Summer’25 prices exceeding 9p/Kwh. 

For a company that uses 500,000Kwh of electricity per month, the difference between buying at the February low point compared to today’s prices would represent a yearly saving of over £200,000.

Quarter 2

A colder-than-forecast April, combined with Norwegian gas production outages, led to prices continuing to rise. The disruptions to gas supply from Norway would be a prominent factor in price rises throughout the quarter as the threat of global conflicts disrupting LNG supplies further impacted the supply-side of the market.

In May, we highlighted the impact that global conflicts could have on energy prices:
news out of the Middle East should be watched closely, as further disruptions to imports from Qatar could see prices rise further.”

Prices continued to rise in June as concerns regarding these conflicts escalated.

Gas reserve levels remained high but the UK’s reliance on imports led to fears in the energy markets, and this harmed businesses with high-energy consumption more than anybody else. While prices kept increasing it became more important for businesses to take necessary steps in reducing their consumption. To aid with this, we released our guide on helping manufacturing businesses lower their energy consumption and keep costs low: SeeMore Energy - Giving businesses that 'Lightbulb' moment...

Quarter 3

It had seemed as though prices were set to drop as we entered the second half of the year, but Hurricane Beryl hitting the Freeport LNG plant in the US and Iran being dragged into conflict in the Middle East put a halt to any optimism.

In July, we had seen the risk posed by upcoming outages at Norwegian gas fields:
A potential problem that could impact prices in August is the Norwegian gas fields scheduled maintenance”. This would prove to be a factor behind price rises over the following 6 weeks as other factors would limit alternative sources of supply:

In addition to these issues, Russian and Ukrainian forces would clash near the Sudzha gas metering station creating concerns about energy security in the region. While heatwaves in East Asia were causing countries in the region to purchase more LNG than expected, increasing competition and prices in the global gas market.

By the end of September we were reflecting on price movement for the remainder of the year, and when we could expect energy prices to come down:
While prices may be set to go higher on the news of further conflicts, there are reasons to be optimistic about the direction of energy prices beyond the coming winter. In 2025 we should see more LNG available to the market as new supplies


For a business that consumes 1,000,000Kwh of electricity during the Winter’24 period, purchasing at the time we had recommended in February (when prices were 6.85p/Kwh), compared to the peak price of August’24 (when prices hit 11.12p/Kwh), would represent an over £30,000 saving just for the winter period. Further highlighting the importance of timing purchases and how negotiating energy contracts at the right time can lead to significant savings.

Quarter 4

In the final quarter of the year the story of the ceasing Russian gas supply to Europe took prominence. Any hopes of the contract that expired on December 31st 2024 being renewed or a workaround being found faded as Ukraine refused to change their stance, despite increasing pressure from Slovakia.


Donald Trump’s election victory in the US opened up the prospect of increased US LNG exports from early 2025, but the more immediate threat of a colder than expected winter caused prices to continue rising.


In November we recommended that those with contracts due for renewal in 2025 try to hold off as long as possible as the supply picture would improve in the new year.

Outlook

The prices for electricity for the period of Winter’25 ended the year over 50% higher than they had been during the February low -- in spite of many fundamentals in the market being similar to this time. The threats of global conflict, erratic weather, and uncertainty about short-term gas supplies have kept wholesale prices high. However, with prices for future years being priced significantly below the current levels, this suggests that prices are set to drop in the near future.


As we move into 2025, it will be important to monitor the UK’s gas reserve levels as increasingly cold temperatures could cause short-term prices spikes. However, with Asia no longer in the midst of a heatwave and US LNG exports expected to ramp up quickly, the supply-side of the market should be more positive than it was for the bulk of 2024.

Global conflicts remain an X-factor, but with Europe no longer reliant upon Russian supplies this should have less of an impact than in recent years.


It seems likely that after the current winter there will be short-term buying to replenish the reserves, but once this is completed, we should see prices begin to steadily decline, and 2025 should see prices drop below the levels we saw in the 2nd half of 2024.


If your business requires advice with its energy procurement, management, or planning, then don’t hesitate to contact Seemore Energy to speak to experienced advisors who can help you with bespoke strategies and advice that is tailored to your needs.

30 June 2025
June 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic The British summer is underway and it commenced with a heatwave, leading to record temperatures during the opening games of Wimbledon. However, energy prices would be largely dictated by events far away from the UK, as a need for cool heads in the Middle East was the primary driver of energy prices throughout June.
24 June 2025
The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy 2025 Electricity Discounts for Over 7,000 Businesses Thousands of UK businesses are set to benefit from a new government plan to cut energy costs, boost competitiveness, and support long-term industrial growth. As part of the newly launched Industrial Strategy, electricity bills for over 7,000 energy-intensive firms will be cut by up to 25% from 2027. What Is the UK's Modern Industrial Strategy? Unveiled on 23 June 2025, the government’s 10-year Industrial Strategy is designed to stimulate business investment, create over one million skilled jobs, and address key structural barriers that have hindered British industry — particularly high electricity prices and delays in grid connections. Central to this plan are two new policies focused on reducing energy costs for businesses: The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) An expanded British Industry Supercharger programme 
19 June 2025
How the Iran-Israel Conflict Could Impact UK Energy Prices By Adam Novakovic Tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified in recent weeks, prompting renewed concerns across global energy markets — including in the UK. The immediate impact has seen some fear in the markets and prices have risen as a result. Any further signs of escalation that could disrupt global supply routes will likely provoke sharp spikes in wholesale energy prices. Soon after Israel launched initial attacks and Iran responded, the United States distanced itself from Israel’s aggressive military posturing, urging both sides to engage in diplomatic dialogue and to avoid an extended regional conflict. This initial reluctance to support a drawn-out confrontation has helped calm fears of a broader war, however, there have been some indications that the US position could change. If the US were to become more directly involved, then the outlook would worsen considerably. US involvement would increase the probability of ground troops being deployed in Iran, and of a prolonged war. Without prolonged hostilities, the energy market should resume its downward trajectory once immediate geopolitical risks fade. Both Iran and Israel lack the resources to sustain a protracted war without foreign support, and most analysts agree that military actions will likely remain confined to missile exchanges, drone activity, and cyber or intelligence-based sabotage, rather than a full-scale ground war.
1 June 2025
May Review By Adam Novakovic As Summer kicked into gear, we saw a small jump in the wholesale energy markets at the start of month before the prices began to stabilise.
1 May 2025
April 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic For some, April can be the cruellest of months. We saw Earthquakes cause damage in Thailand, volcanic eruptions near Iceland, and the month ended with blackouts in the Iberian peninsula. The latter highlighting the issues with switching to renewable energy sources too quickly, at the expense of energy grid stability. However, April can also be a time of great optimism as we exit the winter months and head towards the summer. The energy markets gave us plenty of reasons to be happy in the past month as wholesale gas prices fell over 20%. This drop was also seen in the gas markets for Winter’25 (a 20.42% drop) and for Summer’26 (a 14.17% drop) as prices fell, representing a good buying opportunity for those on flexible contracts.
20 April 2025
TCR Banding: A Powerful but Overlooked Way to Lower Energy Costs for UK Businesses As UK business energy prices continue to fluctuate at historically high levels, companies across the country are under increasing pressure to find reliable ways to lower energy costs. With government levies, non-commodity charges, and market instability all contributing to rising bills, businesses must now look beyond traditional energy-saving methods to manage their expenses. In previous articles we looked at how to lower kVA charges , and published a guide on how to lower business energy costs . One such method gaining attention is TCR Banding — a relatively lesser-known, yet impactful solution for reducing DUoS and TUoS charges. What Is TCR Banding? TCR Banding is part of the Targeted Charging Review (TCR) , a reform introduced by Ofgem in 2022. Its goal is to ensure a fairer, more consistent system for charging UK electricity users for their share of the grid's maintenance costs — specifically the Transmission Use of System (TUoS) and Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges. Instead of charges being based on when energy is used (which could be manipulated by large users), charges are now fixed and based on how much energy is typically consumed. This is where TCR Bands come into play. What Are TCR Bands? TCR Bands categorize electricity meters into different levels based on their voltage type and agreed kVA capacity. These bands determine the fixed DUoS and TUoS charges applied to a business's energy bill. For Low Voltage (LV) Half-Hourly Meters: Band 1: 0 – 80 kVA Band 2: 81 – 150 kVA Band 3: 151 – 231 kVA Band 4: 232 kVA and above For High Voltage (HV) Half-Hourly Meters: Band 1: 0 – 422 kVA Band 2: 423 – 1,000 kVA Band 3: 1,001 – 1,800 kVA Band 4: 1,801 kVA and above The higher your TCR band, the more you'll pay in fixed DUoS and TUoS charges — making it essential for UK businesses to ensure their banding is correctly assigned. Who Assigns Your TCR Band? Your Distribution Network Operator (DNO) is responsible for assigning your TCR Band. DNOs are regional companies that manage the physical infrastructure delivering electricity to your site. They’re also the ones compensated through DUoS and TUoS charges shown on your business energy invoice.
31 March 2025
March 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic As we exit the winter season and the weather begins to improve, the energy news has – once again -- been dominated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
4 March 2025
February Review By Adam Novakovic With consumer spending declining and OFGEM raising their price cap, you would be forgiven for seeing February as a month where negative news was at the forefront, but in the energy markets, this was not the case.
3 February 2025
January 2025 Review By Adam Novakovic This January saw the UK record it’s coldest night in 15 years, but there wasn’t much in the way of wind to accompany the cold temperatures of the month. This combination led to more energy being used than expected and lower-than-hoped renewable levels being recorded, as energy prices continued to rise against the backdrop of European gas reserve levels being depleted. January kicked off with the long-expected news that Russian gas supply would cease flowing into continental Europe. Whilst the cessation of this supply had been long planned for, many would have hoped it wouldn’t coincide with a cold snap hitting the continent. The lower-than-expected temperatures have led to energy consumption being higher than anticipated putting a further strain on reserve supplies. While the weather forecasts were making for dim reading, there was some positive news coming from across the Atlantic. Donald Trump -- uncharacteristically for a politician -- had followed through on his pre-election promises and lifted the freeze on US LNG exports. In addition to reallowing exports to be permitted, Trump has also allowed for new US LNG projects to be applied for, this boosts both short and long-term positivity surrounding the gas supply that can be received by Europe. With the cessation of the Russian gas supply occurring instantly from January 1 st , and the restarting of US exports being something that will likely take months before export capacity is fully ramped up, it could be a few months before the positive effects are truly felt. This would coincide with the end the European winter, so it may be the end of March or beginning of April until the market has a more positive response. However, this could also be when European nations look to begin restocking their reserves. For those with renewals in the coming 3 months, now may be the best time to seek prices, as the further depletion of European gas reserves is likely to have a negative impact upon prices. For those whose contract is due for renewal later in the year, it may be best to be patient and wait for the market conditions to change. If your contract is due for renewal later this year and you would like a reminder sent when the market conditions turn more favourable, simply email your contract end date to adam@seemoreenergy.co.uk and we will provide reminders ahead of the renewal, at times when the market is presenting favourable negotiation conditions. 
2 January 2025
December Review By Adam Novakovic As we moved into the final month of 2024 it seemed as though Santa would be the one delivering positive news regarding energy prices. From the 1 st of December to the 16 th , wholesale gas prices fell by almost 20% and it seemed the overdue market correction was finally underway. However, the price movement for the remainder of the month was more grinch-like than anybody had hoped, as prices rose again, wiping out the decline we had seen in the first half of the month. There were 2 reasons for this rise in prices, the first reason being the weather. Initial long-term forecasts had not predicted this winter to be particularly cold, however, December saw erratic weather events and lower than anticipated temperatures. In October it had been predicted that UK gas consumption throughout the current winter would be very similar to the levels of last year. This now appears to be inaccurate as colder temperatures have led to increased consumption. European gas storage levels have dropped below 75% of capacity with the UK levels being around 55%. This does not compare favourably to last year and raises concerns of how prices could rise should there be a particularly cold January and February. Part of these concerns are already factored into the prices, but this is likely to be the largest short-term factor in energy prices.
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